Advanced Logic (N3/N2) — Scenario Model

Current Price

$329

Advanced Logic (N3/N2) Component

$200/sh

Market Implies

52% chance of upside scenarios

30% crisis probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$1.3T	$515	17%	steady state
bull	$698B	$267	17%	n2 hvm
base	$513B	$196	17%	—
bear	$236B	$90	18%	—
crisis	$134B	$51	30%	recovery begins

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

n2 hvm

N2 (2nm GAA) reaches high-volume manufacturing with good yields

Unlocks: ASP uplift ($30K vs $25K for N3), new customers adopt

N2 volume production Q4 2025 at Fab 22 [Tom's Hardware]

2028

a16 production

A16 (1.6nm with BSPDN) enters production for datacenter AI

Unlocks: Premium pricing for AI chips, further widens moat over Samsung/Intel

A16 targets late 2026 production [Tom's Hardware]

2034

steady state

Growth normalizes as AI infrastructure buildout matures

Unlocks: Stable margins and FCF, terminal value assumptions kick in

Industry analysis: AI capex growth eventually normalizes

2027

demand shock

AI capex correction or geopolitical escalation

Unlocks: Revenue declines, customers defer orders, utilization drops

Bear risk: Taiwan tensions + AI demand cyclicality

2030

recovery begins

Demand stabilizes and slowly recovers

Unlocks: Arizona provides continuity, pricing normalized

Even in crisis, semiconductor demand is structural long-term

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $200/share?

Scenario	Advanced Logic EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$1.3T	$515	17.1%	$88
bull	$698B	$267	17.3%	$46
base	$513B	$196	17.3%	$34
bear	$236B	$90	18.2%	$16
crisis	$134B	$51	30.1%	$15
Total			100%	$200/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to advanced logic's contribution to TSMC equity. Packaging, mature nodes, geopolitical premium, and net cash contribute separately.

Target contribution: $200/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.