TSM/Advanced Logic (N3/N2)

Advanced Logic (N3/N2)

$200/share(61% of TSM)anchored

The Crown Jewel

TSMC's advanced logic business has no peer. With over 90% market share at nodes below 7nm, every major AI chip — from NVIDIA's Blackwell to Apple's M-series to Google's TPUs — is manufactured by TSMC. The gap with Samsung is widening, not narrowing.

Scenario Model$200/share

Technology Node Roadmap — N3 to A16

6 evidence

The Node Ladder

Each generation brings higher wafer prices but better performance and power efficiency. TSMC's roadmap — N3 (production), N2 (ramping), N2P (H2 2026), A16 (late 2026) — is the most aggressive in semiconductor history. Every transition has been delivered on schedule since 2018.

Competitive Moat — Why Samsung and Intel Can't Catch Up

5 evidence

The Widening Gap

The competitive moat is not just holding — it is widening. Samsung's share has fallen from 11% to 7.3% while TSMC climbed to 70%. Intel Foundry remains negligible. The ecosystem lock-in (EDA tools, IP libraries, design methodology all optimized for TSMC) makes switching costly even if competitors achieve comparable technology.

AI Demand Dynamics — The Structural Growth Driver

6 evidence

The Foundry-Agnostic AI Play

TSMC is the only way to bet on AI infrastructure without picking a chip winner. NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Google, Amazon, and Apple all manufacture at TSMC. Whether the future is GPUs, custom ASICs, or something new — TSMC makes them all.

Pricing Power — Multi-Year Hike Program

5 evidence

Unprecedented Pricing Power

TSMC's multi-year pricing program (2025-2029) is the first of its kind in foundry history. With 90%+ advanced node market share and inelastic AI demand, TSMC can raise prices 3-10% annually without losing customers. Gross margins have expanded 9+ percentage points in two years.