Advanced Packaging (CoWoS/SoIC) — Scenario Model

Current Price

$329

Advanced Packaging (CoWoS/SoIC) Component

$60/sh

Market Implies

65% chance of upside scenarios

18% commoditize probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$332B	$127	29%	soic commercial
bull	$157B	$60	18%	—
base	$107B	$41	18%	osat share grows
bear	$48B	$18	18%	competition emerges
commoditize	$25B	$10	18%	osat catches up

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

cowos expansion

CoWoS capacity reaches 130K WPM

Unlocks: Revenue scales with capacity; still fully booked

TSMC targeting 120-130K WPM by end 2026 [TrendForce]

2028

soic commercial

SoIC enters commercial production for AI chips

Unlocks: Higher-value packaging, 10x interconnect density

SoIC commercially significant 2026-2027 [TSMC roadmap]

2030

osat share grows

OSAT partners absorb more CoWoS-S, pricing normalizes

Unlocks: Margin pressure on commodity packaging, TSMC retains CoWoS-L premium

Amkor + SPIL outsourcing 240-270K wafers/yr [DigiTimes]

2030

competition emerges

Samsung/ASE achieve competitive 2.5D packaging

Unlocks: Pricing pressure, TSMC loses some customers for commodity packaging

Samsung X-Cube, ASE CoWoP in development [industry]

2029

osat catches up

OSAT partners match CoWoS quality for standard packages

Unlocks: Severe pricing pressure, TSMC retains only top-tier CoWoS-L

ASE CoWoP development + Samsung X-Cube [industry analysis]

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $60/share?

Scenario	Packaging EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$332B	$127	29.1%	$37
bull	$157B	$60	18.3%	$11
base	$107B	$41	17.5%	$7
bear	$48B	$18	17.5%	$3
commoditize	$25B	$10	17.5%	$2
Total			100%	$60/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to packaging's contribution to TSMC equity. Advanced logic, mature nodes, geopolitical premium, and net cash contribute separately.

Target contribution: $60/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.