TSM/Advanced Packaging (CoWoS/SoIC)

Advanced Packaging (CoWoS/SoIC)

$60/share(18% of TSM)anchored

The AI Bottleneck

CoWoS advanced packaging is THE constraint on global AI chip deployment. Despite quadrupling capacity over two years, it has been fully booked continuously. Every major AI accelerator — from NVIDIA Blackwell to Google TPU — requires CoWoS packaging, and there is no alternative at scale.

Scenario Model$60/share

CoWoS Economics — Pricing, Margins, and Capacity Investment

5 evidence

Monopoly Economics

CoWoS pricing is set by TSMC without competitive pressure — customers have no alternative at scale. The outsourcing strategy to OSAT partners is capital-efficient: TSMC retains the highest-value CoWoS-L work while partners handle commodity packaging.

SoIC 3D Stacking — The Next Packaging Frontier

5 evidence

The Next Frontier

SoIC 3D stacking goes beyond CoWoS by enabling vertical chip stacking with bumpless bonding. This could enable revolutionary compute-near-memory architectures for next-generation AI chips. TSMC's leadership in 2.5D (CoWoS) positions it strongly for the 3D transition.