TSM/Geopolitical Premium/Discount

Geopolitical Premium/Discount

$10/share(3% of TSM)anchored

The Existential Overhang

Taiwan risk is the single biggest uncertainty in the TSMC thesis. The company manufactures 92% of the world's advanced chips on an island 100 miles from China. The Arizona expansion is de-risking this, but 80%+ of leading-edge production remains in Taiwan.

Scenario Model$10/share

Arizona Fab Expansion — De-Risking the Taiwan Concentration

6 evidence

Arizona Exceeds Expectations

The Arizona fab achieved 92% yields — surpassing Taiwan by 4 percentage points — demolishing skeptics who doubted US manufacturing viability. The expansion to 5 fabs and $165B total investment signals TSMC's long-term commitment to US-based production.